Roofing Demand Forecast To Rise 5.7% Thru '15Freedonia Group expects turnaround from 6.1% annual drop in sales between '05 and '10

  • By Craig Webb

Demand nationwide for roofing will rise an average of 5.7% per year between 2010 and 2015 to reach 263 million squares worth $24.4 billion, the Freedonia Group forecast today. That's a turnaround from the previous five-year period, in which demand shrank 6.1% per year, going from 274.2 million squares in 2005 to 199.7 million squares in 2010, the Cleveland-based market research group said.

Residential reroofing will continue to account for the largest share of roofing demand, but Freedonia didn't give a growth forecast for this sector. It did say the new residential market will experience annual gains topping 20% through 2015 as housing starts rebound, while in the nonresidential market it looks for 7.5% annual growth in new construction.

Asphalt shingles will see demand rise 7.3% per year to reach 155.5 million squares in 2015. Within this category, the share taken up by laminated asphalt shingles rose from 40% in 200 to 85% in 2015. "Demand for laminated shingles will be spurred by their superior aesthetic and performance qualities," Feedonia said. "In the long term, increasing use of laminated shingles will constrain replacement demand, as these products can have lifespans more than twice that of conventional asphalt shingles."

Among other product types, in order of popularity:

  • Bituminous low-slope roofing demand will rise 1.9% per year to reach 33.5 million squares in 2015;
  • Metal roofing demand will grow 3.6% annually to 22 million squares;
  • Demand for elastomeric roofing will increase by 2.3% per year to total 18.5 million squares in 2015;
  • Roofing tiles will benefit from construction spending in the West and South to enjoy 10% annual growth and hit 14 million squares; and
  • All other roofing types will see a combined 3.7% rise in demand to reach 19.5 million squares by 2015.

Freedonia put its forecast in a new, 378-page report available for $5,100 from the group's Cleveland headquarters.